Zhujiang Beer (002461): Enjoy the advantage of land and increase the structure into a stage of rapid profit growth

Zhujiang Beer (002461): Enjoy the advantage of land and increase the structure into a stage of rapid profit growth

Industry: The structural upgrade is accelerating, the price band as a whole moves up, and the entire industry as a whole benefits.

  1) Industry level.

High-end beer has grown rapidly, and low-end beer has continued to shrink.

In the past ten years, China’s high-end beer sales have maintained a rapid growth of more than 10%, and the sales share has increased from 2001.1.

9% increased to October 2018.

0%; the proportion of low-end beer sales from 89 in 2001.

1% dropped to 68.

9%.

From the beginning, the proportion of carbon dioxide in high-end beer has reached 63.

7% (of which mid-end accounted for 32.

8%, high-end accounted for 30.

9%).

2) The whole industry benefits as a whole. Foreign countries are deployed earlier and enjoy most of the high-end dividends before 2017. After 2017, domestic companies have started to catch up and accelerate the high-end layout.And the impact of tax cuts, since 2018, the ton prices of China Resources, Tsingtao and Zhujiu have all increased by more than 3%, which has accelerated significantly.

  The company’s base market is in the Pearl River Delta and enjoys a geographical advantage.

  The Pearl River Delta region is the company’s base market, with sales volume accounting for about 65% of the company’s total.

The beer consumption environment in the Pearl River Delta region is better. Due to Budweiser’s earlier high-end layout, consumer cultivation is relatively mature, and the local high-end level is high, which is a geographical advantage for the company.

The company’s share in the Pearl River Delta has increased steadily and slightly, with a total of 36.

7% is in the top two, with stable channels and relatively smooth progress in upgrading the structure.

  Business operation (1): The main business of beer has driven rapid profit growth and has accelerated since 2018. The next 2?
3 years is expected to increase by more than 30%.

  Rising volume and price of high-end products of the company will accelerate the structural upgrade and improve profitability.

The company started to produce pure products in 16 years, and the sales growth rate in the first two years was 15?
20%, natural growth is still at 7% level since 18 years, and it is expected to maintain a considerable growth rate in the next 3 years; gradually reduce product recognition by 2018, and the company will gradually re-invest part of the cost, which will significantly increase the ton price. Compared with the same industryIn view of the situation, the company’s ex-factory ton price for high-end products is at a relative level, and the cost can be replaced.

The EBIT margin of the main beer industry is from January 2015.

2% (business difficulties) quickly rose to the current level of about 6%, close to Tsingtao Beer (7.

9%).

  Expected the next 2?
Within 3 years, the sales volume of pure raw products has increased rapidly (≈7%), and the comprehensive ton price has continued to increase (≈3?
5%) will continue to promote the company’s beer main business profits to achieve more than 30% growth.

  Business operation (2): Catering leasing and commercial real estate projects Catering leasing has been steadily contributing approximately 6 million revenues, 30 million profits and 15 million net profits each year since 2017; commercial real estate projects will begin construction in 2020, 2022It will start to contribute revenue in 2015, and in the future, it may generate 1 sale business (contribute 3 billion revenue, 1 billion + profit) and a steady annual revenue of 400 million and 200 million.

  Other matters: Employee shareholding is expected to be lifted.

  The company started in 2017.

11 yuan / share price for non-public offering 5.

2.3 billion shares, of which 413 supervisors and employees participated in the employee shareholding plan. The current employee shareholding plan totals about 12.37 million shares, accounting for 0 of the company’s total share capital.

56%.

深圳桑拿网After historical restoration of power, the cost of employee shareholding costs was about 4.

88 yuan / share will be lifted on March 9, 2020.

  Investment advice and profit forecast are estimated by business.
  (1) Value replacement of commercial real estate projects.

The company’s commercial real estate plot covers an area of 200,000 square meters, with a comparable unit price of around 1.

50,000 yuan per square meter, calculated that the market value of this land is about 3 billion yuan.

  (2) The remaining market value is 1.2 million yuan, corresponding to the main beer industry.
Main beer industry 2019?
EBITDA in 2020 is about 6.

14, 7.

20 trillion, valuation using EV / EBITDA method, the current market value corresponding to EV / EBITDA 2019?
About 10 in 2020.

7, 11.

1x (Cash is expected to decrease rapidly next year, leading to a reduction in EV).

  (3) Target price and corresponding estimation We think the company’s future 2?
In the past three years, the profit of the main beer industry has maintained rapid growth (more than 30%), which is faster than the overall growth rate of the industry (expected to be about 20%). The company has been given a target price of 8.

8 yuan / share, corresponding to about 18 in EV / EBITDA in 2019 and 2020 respectively.

1x, 17.

4x EV / EBITDA.