Taoli Bread (603866) 2019 Annual Results Express Review: Revenue Growth in Accordance with Expected Expenditure Increase in Expenditure Affects Profit Performance

Taoli Bread (603866) 2019 Annual Results Express Review: Revenue Growth in Accordance with Expected Expenditure Increase in Expenditure Affects Profit 武汉夜生活网 Performance

I. Overview of the event The company released a report on 2019 results, which is expected to achieve operating income for the whole year56.

44 trillion, ten years +16.

77%; net profit attributable to mother 6.

83 trillion, ten years +6.

37%; basic EPS is 1.

04 yuan.

  Second, the analysis and judgment of revenue are in line with the expectations of the third quarter report. Sales and management expenses have dragged down the performance. The company achieved revenue 56.

44 trillion, ten years +16.

77%, combined Q4 single quarter revenue of 15.

2.2 billion, +16 a year.

27%.

The company’s revenue growth rate is stable, and the initial growth rate is 17 in the third quarter.

The 11% expectation is in line.

  The main reasons for the rapid growth of the company’s main business are firstly to actively explore new markets and increase the number of sales terminals; secondly, to strengthen the construction of channels and improve the quality of distribution to increase the single store method.

  The company achieved first-class net profit attributable to mother 6.

83 trillion, ten years +6.

37%, combined Q4 single-quarter net profit1.

80ppm, -9 a year.

55%.

The poor performance of 19H2 directly reduced the growth rate of profit for ten years.

The increase in expenses and expenses in the new market is a preliminary impact on profit performance. It is expected that the sales expense ratio and management expense ratio in Q4 will even increase significantly.

The company’s total assets at the end of 2019 were 51.

830,000 yuan, +32 from the beginning of the period.

20%, convertible bonds to raise funds is the primary growth.

At present, the company has sufficient funds, and Q4 increased capital to Nanchang and Shanghai respectively. It is expected that the construction of new factories and national expansion will continue, and long-term growth is still expected.

  Part of the market is still in the expansion period, and the release of profits still takes time. The company is still in the development phase in regional markets such as South China. The new plant capacity is yet to be fully released. The effect of scale has not yet appeared. The high distribution and transportation costs directly lead to the above regionsSex market profit contribution is limited.

It is expected that in the future, the company will maintain a relatively high expansion rate in newly developed markets, and the high growth of early expenses will still drag down its performance to a certain extent.

In the first three quarters of 2019, the share of revenue in South China / Southwest / East China was 20.

43% / 11.

70% / 6.

63%, the proportion continues to decrease, the development of new markets and the increase in market share are still the primary business goals. High short-term growth will help the company expand in the above regions and ensure long-term growth.

  Third, combined with earnings guidance and earnings guidance, we lowered our earnings forecast.

The company is expected to achieve operating income of 56 in 19-21.

44/66.

14/76.

1.3 billion US dollars, + 17% / + 17% / + 15% at the beginning of the year; realized net profit attributable to listed companies6.

83/7.

94/9.20 ppm, +6% / + 16% / + 16% a year ago, equivalent to 1, respectively.

04/1.

20/1.

40 yuan, currently corresponding to 19-21 years PE is 40/34/29 times.

The overall evaluation of the company is higher than the estimates of other food sectors. The expense ratio has improved performance, but the nationwide expansion and long-term growth are still guaranteed, maintaining a “recommended” rating.

  4. Risk warnings: business expansion is slower than expected, household consumption trends are falling, and food safety issues.