Tongkun shares (601233) 2019 first quarterly report comments: the industry boom after the Spring Festival rebounded in the first quarter results exceeded expectations

Tongkun shares (601233) 2019 first quarterly report comments: the industry boom after the Spring Festival rebounded in the first quarter results exceeded expectations

This report reads: After the Spring Festival, the prosperity of the industry has picked up, and the production and sales rate has increased. The company exceeded expectations in the first quarter.

At the same time, we expect that the operating rate of polyester filament industry will remain at a high level in 2019 and 2020, with better supply and demand dimensions.

Investment points: Maintain overweight rating and profit forecast.

We maintain EPS for 2019/2020/2021 of 1.

53/1.

82/2.

01 yuan, using the industry average of PE12 in 2020.

30 times, raise the target price to 22.

39 yuan, increased holdings.

The company’s performance in the first quarter of 2019 exceeded market expectations.

In the first quarter of 2019, the company achieved net profit attributable to mothers5.

2 ‰, an increase of 4 in ten years.

1%.

The company achieved 137 digits of polyester filament sales in the first quarter, an annual increase of 49%.

Production and sales rate reached 95%.

At the same time, due to the increase in interest expenses in the current period, the company’s financial expenses increased, and the proportion of the three expenses increased from 2 in the same period last year.

0% increased to 2.

6%.

The company’s inventory decreased slightly by 3% to 40 compared with the same period last year.

200000000.

Cash flow from operating activities for the period was 19.

2 trillion, compared with -14 in the same period last year.

The substantial improvement of USD 0 billion was mainly due to the increase in cash received for sales of goods and provision of labor services.

After the Spring Festival, the prosperity of the industry picked up.

Downstream terminals were shut down during the Spring Festival, and polyester filament inventories rose.

However, from the end of February to the beginning of March, by increasing the load downstream to a high level, the production and sales rate of filaments rebounded.

At the same time, international oil prices rose, filament prices rose, and spreads widened.

In the first quarter, the spreads of POY, FDY, DTY, and PTA rose by -4%, 20%, 12%, and -6% to 1094, 1827, 2664, and 754 yuan / ton, respectively.

It is expected that polyester filament will maintain a better supply and demand pattern in 2019 and 2020.

The polyester filament industry’s production capacity will increase in 2019 and 2020, and the industry concentration will further increase. From 2016 to 2019, the production ratio of polyester filament CR5 will increase from 33% to 43%.

According to our estimates, the operating rate of polyester 佛山桑拿网 filament industry will remain at a high level in 2019 and 2020, and the supply and demand pattern is good.

Risk warning: the risk of falling oil prices and the downturn in polyester demand.